The size of the UK economy could increase by 6.9% by 2040 through continued investment in digital technologies to change how businesses operate. According to a study, the Gross Domestic Product could be £74bn higher than today by 2025, increase by £127bn by 2030, and be £232bn bigger by 2040 if the digital investment is sustained.
The study from Virgin Media Business and the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr) looked at the potential economic impact of a wave of digital transformation–driven technologies that create new ways of working and connecting. It predicted a possible increase in UK GDP more significant than the total GDP of Finland today (£209bn).
Cebr said significant trends that will transform the world of work by 2040 are flexible working, digital delivery of services, and richer data from AI and analytics. Growth through digital investments would support the economy in recovering from the Covid-19 pandemic and the inevitable hit of leaving the European Union and its single market. In 2020, UK GDP was £1.96tn, £216bn less than in 2019, mainly down to the Covid-19 pandemic.
Accelerated digital transformation across sectors in the UK economy has demonstrated the viability of new working methods, which can reduce costs and increase productivity. Cristian Niculescu-Marcu, director of economic analysis at Cebr, said: “History shows us that periods of economic hardship can help to catalyze technological progress and adoption, as businesses and other stakeholders seek to adapt to new realities.”
The research analyzed the potential economic impact of “a wave of digital transformation” instigated by new working and connecting methods. “This could create an economic high road over the coming decades, helping the UK economy to grow while also having the flexibility to deal with future challenges,” said Niculescu-Marcu.
The study revealed the benefits in business and public sectors and found that public sector efficiency can be improved in the UK and costs cut. Health and social care digital investments could add £33bn to GDP by 2040 while transforming justice, and central and local government could be worth £32bn.
Meanwhile, digital investments in the retail, professional services, and construction sectors could be worth £33bn. Covid-accelerated digital transformation could boost employee productivity, according to the study, with a 12% productivity growth assumption for those employees who can take full advantage of Covid-accelerated digital transformation.
“This is substantively responsible for the economic uplift of 4.8% across the retail, professional service, and construction sectors by 2040, driven by continued growth in flexible working, enabling digital service delivery and richer data sets for AI and analytics,” said the study report.
Peter Kelly, managing director at Virgin Media Business, said: “Moves to accelerate digital adoption are driving extraordinary outcomes across private and public sector organizations, helping them to revolutionize how they work, deliver for customers, and provide vital services for our communities.” According to a recent report from cloud communications platform provider Twilio, 96% of UK enterprise decision-makers noted that the pandemic sped up their company’s digital transformation plans. Of these, 66% said it did so “a great deal”.
